The battle for preferred proxy status: Ethiopia vs. Kenya

Ethiopia invaded Somalia in 2006, part of the United States, promoted a series of warnings about the regional analysts and strong domestic demand objections. The two years of the occupation, despite the surrender of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), a quick hit, an unintended consequence of strengthening and fatal movement was more radical al-Shabab, which has since then as the group turned out, more dominant militants in the Hornof Africa. The United States is again engaged in a fight against a new enemy – a monster was created.

Since its strategic mistakes in 2006 recognized the United States, the Ethiopian intervention in Somalia was very much against-productive because it nourished Somali nationalism and more support and legitimacy of militants. To the historical enmity between Ethiopia and Somalia, the Obama administration a proxy alternative, Kenya has chosen culminating in an invasion of little more than a month.

Ethiopia is not exceeded. He again invaded Somalia. In the past two decades, Ethiopia, the main accomplice of U.S. involvement in the Somali conflict. Controversial and often secret marriage had great financial benefits, military and political Meles Zenawi.

Firstly, in exchange for services rendered (information gathering, military operations, forming and arming warlords friendly, etc), Ethiopia became the happiness of the United States and the “international community” over. For example, in addition to the funds of the 2006 Ethiopian invasion, the U.S. secretly removes an arms embargo against North Korea by Ethiopia to buy spare parts for its Soviet weapons. A position that it emerge as a key African leaders and to suppress internal opposition half – Second, by dealing with Somalia, Meles has the “strategic ally” image in the West instead of control bit.

Ethiopia seemed offended by the decision of the United States the last ones off to Kenya.The discontent is essential Zenawi by two concerns:

a) Ethiopia is concerned that Kenya could be replaced as a major player in the East African military and security affairs. Zenawi does not want to lose the power and prestige of the strategic alliance, there is in relation to the consolidation of power.

b) If Kenya is in a position to crush al-Shabab, with his backers, Kenya will have more weight to influence the political outcome that results. It is, of course, reduces the influence of Ethiopia and has a direct consequence on the national policy in Ethiopia.

Financial incentives and measures which is provided by the United States have always mix a secondary ground Zenawi in Somalia have been. Ethiopia is the Oromo and Ogaden insurgency, faced with two groups of relatives, historical and political relations with the people of Somalia. Thus, the determination of Meles “to prevent the reappearance of a stable and sovereign government in Somalia to move to deny a tacit, the rebels a possible ally.

If Kenya, as a pro-Ethiopian rebels who dominated the Somali conflict, the arrangement resulting policy does not Zenawi. To allow this would be a fatal blow, and he received a confirmation of the African Union through the use of the suspicion of the Union of Western imperial ambitions in the light of recent events in Libya.

Currently, Ethiopia and Kenya to work from two angles in the battle for control of Somalia.Ethiopia’s decision to jump on this conflict is a simple calculation that the strategic military force, the tip of the result is in their favor on.

The current invasion of Kenya is the first serious internal or external war since independence. Kenya’s military is too inexperienced and ill-prepared to lead a successful war outside their own territory against a well-organized insurgency. Therefore, the first fanfare was easily stopped by a ragtag militia, not even Al-Shahab brigade major. They made their plight on the weather.

However, Ethiopia has an ancient and battle-hardened military institution with a wealth of experience in the various internal and external wars. The military institution has experience in the fight against the Somalis – both the military and various government insurgents. In addition, the current army of generals who once commanded the rebels with a clear predisposition for strategies against insurgency. Therefore, there is little doubt that the Ethiopians in a position to al-Shabab in the days to clear and re-occupy Mogadishu. This will deny the privilege of Kenya more control.

Ethiopian military glory mocking “while Kenyans threatening text messages and tweets of al-Shabab set to send the border, Ethiopia, the book back in Kismayo.”

The Mission in Ethiopia is twofold: to protect his reputation as one of the main actors in the region by demonstrating effective than Kenya, emerging competitors and take precedence over the possible installation of a less friendly government in Somalia. The event triumphs mission is Ethiopia force the U.S. to reconsider its decision to inefficiency of Kenya and reliability.

Although these political games are played behind closed doors to continue the ongoing suffering of the Somali people. And in Somalia failed clings to his status.